Polyscope tracks probability shifts across every active Polymarket market and alerts you the moment consensus starts repricing — before the move feels obvious.
A probability shift happens when a market's YES price moves meaningfully over a short time window. On Polymarket, that price represents the collective belief about whether something will happen. When it moves, it means the crowd is actively updating its view. Shifts often coincide with Polymarket whale alerts — large trades that push the price before the broader market catches up.
A 5-cent move on a prediction market isn't noise — it's the market digesting new information, a narrative change, or a shift in who's participating. These moves often happen before mainstream coverage catches up.
When a market shifts 10pp in two hours, the crowd is absorbing something — a poll, a news break, an insider leak. That repricing window is where opportunity lives.
Probability shifts often signal that the story around an event has changed. Traders who notice the shift early get to re-evaluate their positions before the rest of the market adjusts.
Shifts can compound. A 5pp move that continues to 15pp tells you the initial repricing wasn't a one-off — it's a trend forming in real time.
Polyscope continuously snapshots the YES probability for every active market. Every 5 minutes, it compares the current price against the oldest snapshot still within a rolling 2-hour window.
This rolling-window approach means you're not comparing against a fixed daily open. You're comparing against what the market looked like recently — which is far more useful for catching fast-developing moves. See the full technical breakdown on the alert methodology page.
When the difference crosses a threshold, an alert fires immediately.
Each tier is calibrated to filter noise and surface moves that matter.
YES probability moves 5+ percentage points within the lookback window. Enough to signal that something is happening.
A 10pp+ move in two hours is significant. The market is actively digesting new information or a narrative shift.
A 20pp+ swing is rare and dramatic. These are the moves that rewrite the consensus on an outcome.
Unlike fixed-time comparisons, the rolling 2-hour window catches moves as they develop — not just after they've settled.
A probability shift on its own tells you something moved. Polyscope adds the context you need to decide whether it matters:
Order book sentiment — see whether buying or selling pressure is driving the move, with bid/ask depth and ratio.
Spread and liquidity — know whether the market is liquid enough to act on, or too thin to trust the price.
Volume context — 24-hour and total volume show you whether the shift is happening in a market people care about. A probability shift paired with a Polymarket volume spike is a stronger signal than either one alone.
Cooldown filtering — each market can only trigger one shift alert per 30 minutes, so you get signal without spam.
If you trade the direction of movement, shift alerts tell you when consensus is breaking and which way it's going.
Probability shifts often precede or coincide with news events. Getting the alert early gives you a head start on understanding what's happening.
If you fade overreactions, shift alerts tell you when a market has moved far enough to consider whether it's overshooting.
Polyscope checks markets every 5 minutes and sends alerts within seconds of detecting a threshold-crossing shift. You'll typically get the alert within minutes of the move starting.
A 5pp shift means the YES probability moved 5 percentage points (e.g., 45% to 50%). A 20pp shift is a dramatic swing — like 40% to 60%. Bigger shifts are rarer and usually indicate something significant is happening.
A rolling window catches moves as they develop. If a market drifts from 50% to 55% over 8 hours and then jumps to 65% in 2 hours, the rolling window catches that 10pp spike. A daily comparison would show 15pp but miss the timing.
No. Each market has a 30-minute cooldown between alerts of the same type. And Polyscope only tracks markets above a minimum volume threshold, so you won't get alerts for inactive or illiquid markets.
Polyscope monitors all active Polymarket markets automatically. You don't need to select individual markets — any market that crosses a threshold will trigger an alert.
Get free Polymarket Telegram alerts for probability shifts, Polymarket whale alerts, and volume spikes. Want to learn how to trade Polymarket? Build a real prediction market trading strategy with the Polymarket trading course.