Methodology

How Polyscope Detects Real-Time Polymarket Signals

A transparent look at how Polyscope detects whale trades, probability shifts, volume spikes, and emerging markets — then turns them into useful Telegram alerts for traders.

Fast alerts only matter if the detection logic is sound.

Traders do not need more noise. They need to understand what is being measured, how fast it is measured, and why the alert is worth their attention. This page explains the core detection systems that power Polyscope.

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Large Trade Detection

Real-time whale watching via WebSocket

How It Works

Polyscope connects directly to Polymarket's CLOB WebSocket feed and streams every trade event as it executes. There is no polling interval for large trade detection — trades are processed the moment they hit the feed.

For each trade, the scanner calculates the USD value by multiplying shares × price. If that value meets or exceeds a threshold, an alert fires immediately with trade direction, dollar size, and the market context.

Why It Matters to Traders

Large size can matter before the market fully reprices. A meaningful buy or sell can reveal urgency, conviction, or liquidity pressure — especially when combined with tight spread, thin depth, or a follow-on move.

Tier Thresholds

💰 Large Single trade ≥ $5,000
💰💰 Major Single trade ≥ $10,000
🐋 Whale Single trade ≥ $20,000

Data Source

WebSocket endpoint: Polymarket CLOB WSS (last_trade_price events). Tokens are subscribed in batches, and the connection auto-reconnects with backoff if interrupted.

Detection Speed
< 5 seconds
From trade execution to Telegram alert
Data Flow
Trade executes
WebSocket streams event
USD value calculated
Threshold + cooldown check
Telegram alert sent
📈

Probability Shift

Tracking consensus changes over a rolling window

How It Works

Every 5 minutes, Polyscope snapshots each market's YES probability and stores those snapshots in a rolling 2-hour window. On each cycle, the current probability is compared against the oldest snapshot still within the active window.

If the absolute change in percentage points meets the threshold, an alert fires with direction and magnitude, showing exactly how much the market moved over the lookback period.

Why It Matters to Traders

Probability movement is one of the clearest ways to see that the market's consensus is shifting. It helps traders separate active repricing from background chatter and spot momentum before it becomes obvious.

Tier Thresholds

🔺 Shift Absolute change ≥ 5 pp
🔺🔺 Major Absolute change ≥ 10 pp
🔺🔺🔺 Massive Absolute change ≥ 20 pp

The Rolling Window

The lookback window defaults to 2 hours. Snapshots are timestamped and stored per market. When a shift is detected, the alert shows the baseline and current value so the change is immediately legible.

Snapshot Frequency
Every 5 min
~24 snapshots per market inside the 2-hour window
Detection Logic
Poll current market prices
Store timestamped snapshot
Compare vs oldest active snapshot
Threshold crossed?
Directional alert fires
🚀

Volume Spike

Detecting surging interest before prices fully move

How It Works

Polyscope tracks each market's 24-hour trading volume across the same rolling snapshot system. The current 24-hour volume is divided by the baseline volume from the oldest active snapshot.

When that ratio crosses the configured multiplier — and the market also clears a minimum liquidity floor — a volume spike alert fires.

Why It Matters to Traders

Volume often moves before price fully catches up. A sudden surge in activity can indicate fresh attention, new information hitting the market, or size entering before the crowd reacts.

Tier Thresholds

🚀 Spike 24h volume ≥ baseline
🚀🚀 Major 24h volume ≥ baseline
🚀🚀🚀 Extreme 24h volume ≥ 10× baseline

Signal Quality Control

Markets must also clear a minimum volume threshold so the system does not flood you with meaningless spikes from illiquid noise.

Minimum Volume
$10,000
24h volume floor to keep the signal cleaner
Calculation
Fetch current 24h volume
Retrieve baseline volume
Calculate current ÷ baseline
Multiplier crossed?
Spike alert sent
🆕

New Top Market

Spotting markets that are suddenly climbing the leaderboard

How It Works

Every 5 minutes, Polyscope ranks active markets by 24-hour volume. The top 20 are compared against the previous cycle. If a market enters the top 20 and was not there before, it triggers an alert with the rank.

Why It Matters to Traders

Markets that break into the top 20 are often pulling in fresh attention quickly. This can help traders find heating-up narratives earlier instead of arriving after volume is already crowded.

Trigger Condition

🆕 New Entrant Market enters Top 20 by 24h volume
Leaderboard Size
Top 20
Ranked by 24-hour volume
Detection Logic
Rank all markets by volume
Compare new top 20 vs previous cycle
Identify fresh entrants
Send alert with rank

Supporting Systems

The infrastructure that makes alerts smarter, cleaner, and more actionable.

⏱️

Smart Cooldowns

Each market has a 30-minute cooldown per trigger type, which prevents repetitive spam without suppressing other relevant alert categories on the same market.

📖

Order Book Enrichment

Every alert is enriched with bid/ask spread, liquidity depth, and order book context so the trader sees more than just the headline event.

⚖️

Sentiment Analysis

Buy/sell pressure is estimated from order book depth and summarized into readable sentiment buckets so the trader gets a quick directional read.

📊

Hourly Summary

Regular digests summarize how many alerts fired across each category so even traders away from the feed can keep up with the pace of the market.

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